Aluminium Exhibition | Strengthening PV Module Production Schedule Supports Aluminium Demand for PV

The PV aluminium extrusion industry has recently experienced a surge in orders, driven by both policy support and increased demand from distributed installations. A survey by SMM indicates that leading companies have seen a rise in order volumes compared to the beginning of the year. By the end of February, several downstream module manufacturers had increased their procurement of frames, with distributed projects contributing significantly to this growth.

Demand is expected to continue rebounding through April and May. However, despite the heightened market enthusiasm, industry profit margins remain under pressure. The high cost of raw materials has led many companies to face the challenge of “volume discounts.” Currently, top-tier enterprises are maintaining stable supply through large-scale production, while some small and medium-sized producers have shifted towards supporting products, such as PV mounting blocks, to alleviate the pressure on profitability.

Between February 24 and February 28, 2025, the average spot price of aluminium showed a slight upward trend. The weekly average price of SMM A00 aluminium ingot was RMB 20,532 per tonne, marking a 0.5% decline from the previous week. Overall, most suppliers remain optimistic about the outlook for the aluminium market, and a turning point in inventory levels is expected to emerge gradually as March progresses. With continued policy support, aluminium ingot inventories are expected to remain low in the long term.

Russia’s plans to resume aluminium product exports to the U.S. could help narrow the price gap between domestic and international markets. However, the U.S.’s inconsistent stance on tariffs has introduced uncertainty to the market.  President Trump's unpredictable use of tariffs has sparked concerns about inflation, while expectations regarding interest rate cuts remain uncertain. As March approaches, the domestic market’s focus will shift to the upcoming “Two Sessions,” where economic growth targets and policies aimed at boosting consumption will be set.

On the fundamentals side, cost pressures have slightly stabilized. In anticipation of the "Golden March and Silver April," downstream operating rates continue to recover at a modest pace following the holiday season. It remains to be seen whether end-use consumption will sustain momentum as March unfolds.

Most suppliers are optimistic about the aluminium market, and the turning point in inventories is expected to appear in March. With continued policy support, aluminium ingot inventories are expected to remain low over the long term. East China has already led the way in destocking, and market sentiment is becoming more focused on holding back cargoes.

SMM anticipates that driven by macroeconomic sentiment and trading expectations, SHFE aluminium prices are more likely to rise than fall. The potential for further tariff escalation and macroeconomic stimulus exceeding expectations could drive aluminium prices to challenge RMB 21,000 per tonne. The most-traded SHFE aluminium 2504 contract is expected to range between RMB 20,420 and 21,200 per tonne next week, while LME aluminium is projected to fluctuate between USD 2,600 and 2,730 per tonne.

Source: Al Circle