I. Overview of the Current Status of the Electrolytic Aluminum Industry
1. Capacity and Production
China is the world's largest producer and consumer of electrolytic aluminum. In 2022, China's electrolytic aluminum output reached 40.21 million tons, accounting for 59% of global production, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.6% from 2015 to 2022. As of February 2025, China's operating electrolytic aluminum capacity stands at approximately 43.555 million tons, with an operating rate of 96.5%, indicating a more rational approach to capacity expansion. The distribution of production capacity is shifting from coal-rich regions like Shandong and Henan to hydropower-rich areas such as Yunnan and Guangxi, aiming to reduce carbon emissions and enhance sustainable development capabilities.
2. Costs and Profits
In the cost structure of electrolytic aluminum, electricity accounts for 36%, alumina for 34%, and prebaked anodes for 17%. With ongoing power market reforms and alumina capacity expansion, the cost structure has seen changes. As of March 10, 2025, the average price of electrolytic aluminum is RMB 20,770 per ton, while alumina prices stand at RMB 3,360 per ton. Aluminum enterprises are achieving high profit levels, with an industry average profit of RMB 3,354.51 per ton.
3. Policies and Market Environment
The government has implemented stringent regulatory policies to promote the green development of the electrolytic aluminum industry. The Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Action Plan for the Electrolytic Aluminum Industry mandates that by the end of 2025, the proportion of capacity meeting energy efficiency benchmark levels should reach 30%, and the utilization rate of renewable energy should exceed 25%. Both domestic and international market demand continues to grow, particularly in sectors such as new energy vehicles, aerospace, and construction, presenting new opportunities for the industry.
II. Key Analysis
1. Energy Conservation, Carbon Reduction, and Green Development
The electrolytic aluminum industry is vigorously advancing energy conservation and carbon reduction initiatives, promoting the substitution of non-fossil energy, optimizing electrolytic cell structures, enhancing waste heat recovery, and utilizing renewable energy sources such as hydropower, wind power, and solar energy to reduce carbon emissions. Additionally, the industry is upgrading raw material solutions and strengthening industrial chain collaboration to drive green transformation.
2. Capacity Layout and Regional Development
The distribution of production capacity is shifting towards regions rich in clean energy, with Yunnan and Guangxi emerging as new hotspots. However, overcapacity in some areas necessitates technological innovation and industrial upgrading to enhance product value and competitiveness.
3. Technological Innovation and Industrial Upgrading
Breakthroughs in technologies such as low-temperature aluminum electrolysis and new continuous anode electrolytic cells have improved product performance. Electrolytic aluminum enterprises are strengthening collaborations with sectors like new energy vehicles and aerospace, promoting industrial chain integration and optimization, and enhancing international influence.
Case Study: Tianshan Aluminum
Tianshan Aluminum has established an integrated industrial chain from bauxite to electrolytic aluminum, high-purity aluminum, and battery aluminum foil, ensuring stable power and raw material supply, reducing costs, and enhancing competitiveness.
III. Development Trends and Predictions
1. Sustained Growth in Market Demand
The increasing demand for high-performance aluminum materials in sectors such as new energy vehicles, aerospace, and construction provides vast market opportunities for the electrolytic aluminum industry.
2. Deepening Energy Conservation, Carbon Reduction, and Green Development
Global climate change challenges are driving the electrolytic aluminum industry to intensify efforts in energy conservation and carbon reduction, with governments and enterprises jointly promoting green transformation.
3. More Rational Capacity Layout and Regional Development
Production capacity will continue to shift towards regions rich in clean energy. Governments will strengthen regulation to prevent overcapacity, while enterprises must strategically position themselves to enhance competitiveness.
4. Accelerated Technological Innovation and Industrial Upgrading
Technological advancements and market changes are accelerating innovation and industrial upgrading in the electrolytic aluminum sector. Government policies will support these efforts, driving the optimization and integration of the industrial chain.
In 2025, the electrolytic aluminum industry demonstrates new characteristics in terms of capacity layout, cost control, policy direction, and market demand. Energy conservation, carbon reduction, technological innovation, and industrial upgrading have become critical drivers of industry development. Moving forward, the electrolytic aluminum industry will continue to advance on a path of green, efficient, and collaborative growth.
